The Houston Astros are set to face the Philadelphia Phillies at 4:05 p.m. ET today at Citizens Bank Park, with pitching matchups that are critical for NRFI/YRFI bettors. Spencer Arrighetti will start for the Astros, holding a solid NRFI record of 15-7 this season. Meanwhile, Taijuan Walker will take the mound for the Phillies, with a more balanced but less reliable NRFI record of 7-6. MLB odds for this game, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, favor a run in the first inning with YRFI at -145, while NRFI sits at +105, suggesting a more enticing value for those betting on no run in the first inning. With broken clouds and temperatures forecasted at a warm 89°F, the game conditions could influence these odds, offering key insights for NRFI/YRFI market predictions.
Astros vs Phillies: NRFI/YRFI Odds and Insights
For today’s matchup, DraftKings Sportsbook offers -145 odds for YRFI and +105 for NRFI, indicating a higher implied probability for a run being scored in the first inning. These odds translate to a 59.18% chance for YRFI and 48.78% for NRFI, emphasizing the expectation of early scoring. However, given the Astros’ tendency for fewer first-inning runs and Arrighetti’s steady first-inning performance, the value may lie in backing the NRFI bet at +105.
- DraftKings YRFI: -145 (59.18% implied probability)
- DraftKings NRFI: +105 (48.78% implied probability)
While Taijuan Walker has struggled in some first innings this season, the Astros lineup has a YRFI percentage of under 30%, suggesting a low likelihood of early scoring. Additionally, Spencer Arrighetti has been consistent with a 15-7 NRFI record. The underdog value on NRFI could pay off in this game, despite the more favorable odds leaning toward a first-inning run.
Prediction: NRFI (+105)

Pitcher and Lineup Analysis: Astros vs Phillies
Spencer Arrighetti brings solid metrics into this matchup, with a WHIP of 1.41, a strikeout rate of 26.5%, and a home run allowance of 1.31 HR/9. These numbers contribute to his strong NRFI record of 15-7, showcasing his ability to limit early runs. On the other hand, Taijuan Walker has struggled more in early innings, holding a WHIP of 1.58, a lower strikeout rate of 17.8%, and a high home run rate of 2.37 HR/9, giving him a less reliable NRFI/YRFI record of 7-6. These stats paint a picture of a game where Arrighetti may have the edge over Walker in the first inning.
Walker has been vulnerable to home runs, particularly at home, where his HR/9 rate climbs to 2.63. Meanwhile, Arrighetti’s performance against right-handed hitters is more stable, with a 1.36 WHIP and 24.9 K%, further strengthening his case for NRFI backers.
Astros Lineup vs Taijuan Walker
- Jose Altuve: .328 wOBA
- Alex Bregman: .349 wOBA
- Yordan Alvarez: .380 wOBA, .246 ISO
The Astros hitters, particularly Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, present a challenge to Walker’s pitching, with strong contact and power stats. Yordan Alvarez brings even more firepower, boasting a .380 wOBA and .246 ISO, signaling potential trouble for Walker. However, the Astros’ overall YRFI percentage remains below 30%, which aligns with a low-scoring first inning.
Phillies Lineup vs Spencer Arrighetti
- Kyle Schwarber: .331 wOBA, .237 ISO
- Bryce Harper: .359 wOBA, .252 ISO
- Trea Turner: Speed threat
- Alec Bohm: .345 wOBA
The Phillies lineup offers significant offensive threats, with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper leading the way. Schwarber’s .331 wOBA and .237 ISO and Harper’s .359 wOBA and .252 ISO indicate their ability to score early. Trea Turner adds another dimension with his speed, while Alec Bohm’s .345 wOBA provides depth. However, Arrighetti’s 26.5% strikeout rate and control over right-handed hitters make him a formidable opponent, keeping the odds of a first-inning run balanced.
Conclusion: Both teams bring powerful lineups and capable pitchers, but the slight edge for NRFI lies in the Astros’ ability to limit first-inning scoring and Arrighetti’s consistent first-inning performance. For those tracking MLB odds and seeking value, NRFI at +105 offers a solid opportunity in today’s matchup.
Source : https://www.playma.com/news/astros-vs-phillies-nrfi-yrfi-preview-8-28-24-odds-prediction-pitching-matchup-stats/